The Tsunami discussion was raised by N. Leary who wrote in the Timaru Herald letters to the editor on 23rd November 2007: “It’s not if, but when, the big wave comes. How safe will the complex be? This on top of the Government stating during the year that no permits would be given for coastal development because of the chance of rising sea levels.” It would be useful to have a reference for that Government statement, and if anyone can find it we’d be much obliged.
Just trying to get a handle on what the risk at the site in question really is I went to the NIWA site and looked around. The most recent event of any significance appears to have been on the 18th November 2006: “wave heights recorded here in New Zealand were … 0.58 metres at Timaru” [link].
A wee footnote here, I found this: “Coastal urban planning needs to take sea level rise into account because its effects will be apparent during the typical replacement time of urban infrastructure such as buildings (before about 70 years). For local planning, ideally a risk assessment methodology may be employed to estimate the risk caused by sea level rise. In many locations, planning thresholds would also have to be considered in the light of possible changes in storm surge climatology due to changes in storm frequency and intensity, and (in some locations) changes to return periods of riverine flooding. In the medium term (decades), urban beaches will need beach re-nourishment and associated holding structures such as sea walls. Changes in storm and wave climatology are crucial factors for determining future coastal erosion.” (Walsh et al., 2004).
Walsh, K. Betts, H. et al (2004) “Using Sea Level Rise Projections for Urban Planning in Australia” Journal of Coastal Volume 20, Issue 2 (April 2004) pp. 586–598. [Online] Available from: here. (Accessed: 20th December 2007).
